Mid-season predictions (Part 2 - The West)

1. Detroit Red Wings
I feel like I owe an apology to the Wings and their fans, because for the past five years or so, I've been quick to condemn them to the junk heap for various reasons. Dominik Hasek and Chris Chelios are too old, they'll never make it. Nope. Steve Yzerman is retiring, they won't be a strong contender without him. Nope. Past Datsyuk and Zetterberg, the Wings won't have any depth. Nope. Every year, I come up with another reason why the Red Wings won't succeed, and every year, they throw my words back in my face. And really, I suppose I couldn't be happier. As one of the original six teams, not only is the Wings organization a class act in every way, but their talent is home grown, and flies in the face of the philosophy of teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Rangers. There are only two possible explanations for this. 1. The Detroit Red Wings have a signed contract with the devil. Or 2. The Wings organization is spending all their money in the right places. I prefer the latter to the former, but to each his own.
Analysis: Even if you're not a fan of the Detroit Red Wings, it's almost impossible to not give the proper respect to what they've done over the past 10 or 20 years of hockey (not to mention since their conception). Three Cups in the last 10 years, including back to back years in 96/97 and 97/98, five President's trophies for most points in the NHL, four cup final appearances, and never finishing below 3rd in the East for the last ~15 years. 'Nuff said. Will the Wings make the playoffs? The question is not whether the Wings will make the playoffs or not, but rather how deep will they go?

2. San Jose Sharks
The Sharks have played like studs in the regular season, but have somewhat fizzled in the playoffs. They currently stand 2nd in the West, first in their division, and 2nd in the NHL with 57 points. And their top scorers (besides Big Joe) are currently "slumping".
Analysis: Will they make the playoffs? Will they lead their division all the way to the end? Will they succeed in the playoffs? Many of these questions depend on the health and play of Evgeni Nabokov, who has played in all but 1 game for the Sharks. Whether or not he's started all 43 games is really inconsequential at this point for a goalie that's on pace to play 80 games. Ouch. Will Nabokov have anything left in the tank for the post-season? Even Martin Brodeur only plays 70+ games, and has only played over 75 games twice in his career. Will the Sharks make the playoffs? They should almost surely finish within the top 5 in the West, if not the NHL, but whether or not they will be successful with a dog-tired goalie is another story.

3. Minnesota Wild
The Minnesota Wild seem to have finally come to terms with the quirky little team that is the Minnesota Wild. Any team playing a defensive system with the likes of Marian Gaborik, Pavol Demitra, and Brian Rolston is a team with an identity crisis. Fortunately, over the past couple years, Gaborik has been playing more games, and has been starting to change the team identity. Goals are up, defense is still strong, netminding is always a plus, even with the loss of Manny Fernandez.
Analysis: While the Northwest division is fairly competitive, the Wild make a strong argument for first place. If the Wild don't finish in the top three in the East, there's no reason to think that they should finish below top five in the West.

4. Dallas Stars
While the Stars are another perennial candidate to make the playoffs, their roster just dosn't seem strong enough on paper to be a good playoff candidate. Modano is starting to show signs of age, and behind Mike Ribeiro, they really don't have much depth down the middle. Depth on the wing is also a concern as they really don't have a legitimate top six. Besides Brenden Morrow (who's not a natural goal scorer by any stretch of the imagination), the Stars having anyone in top 20 in league scoring will be a surprise.
Analysis: The Stars, on paper at least, seem to be overachieving, mainly on the shoulders of Mike Ribeiro and Brendan Morrow. Will they keep it up until the end of the season? Possibly. However, if their roster is any indication, they may not finish in the top five, but should make the playoffs.

5. Vancouver Canucks
Roberto Luongo.

6. Calgary Flames
The Calgary Flames, who have in years past been offensively challenged, have recently become a scoring threat. Captain, Jarome Iginla, is amongst top five in NHL scoring with 62 points in 48 games, and his supporting cast of Kristian Huselius, Daymond Langkow, and Alex Tanguay are all on pace for 20 goals or more. However, in their quest for more offense, they seem to have lost their identity as a hard working, grinding, defensively minded team. They have also done nothing to address their gaping hole up the middle. While Craig Conroy and Daymond Langkow are both good centres, neither one is truly a No. 1 centre, and neither one can truly support Jarome Iginla to the level he needs to maximize his scoring potential.
Analysis: Despite their early season struggles, the Calgary Flames will undoubtedly make the playoffs. However, playing in a division as competitive as the Northwest with teams like Minnesota, Colorado, and Vancouver, who are all separated by no more than two points, taking the division title will be a challenge. Regardless of how they fare in their division, the Flames should finish no lower than 5th in the West. However, as competitive as the top eight teams are in the West, you never really know.

7. Anaheim Ducks
As you can see, standings can drastically change within the span of just a few games. When I started this analysis, the Ducks were in 7th, and now they are currently second in the West with 58 points. While the Ducks had a bit of a rocky start, they seem to have found their stride, and with the return of Scott Niedermayer (and possibly Teemu Selanne), they have once again become a Cup contender. While the loss of Andy McDonald and Dustin Penner might hurt in the short run, the emergence of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry as premier, top-line scorers is quickly healing the wound. Coupled with depth on the blueline, including all-star defencemen Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, and the goaltending of Jean-Sebastien Giguere, the Ducks, at least on paper, are amongst the top teams in the West.
Analysis: The Ducks have recently moved into second in the West, and have passed San Jose for first in the Pacific division. Don't be surprised if they stay amongst the top 3 or 4 in the West for the remainder of the season.

8. St. Louis Blues
The Blues have experienced a rebirth since the colossal disaster that was the last two seasons. They've gone from dead last in the NHL with a total of 57 points for the entire 05/06 season, to 9th place in the West with 50 points and 22 wins already, which is a significant improvement. The acquisition of Paul Kariya and Andy McDonald, along with the emergence of Brad Boyes from Boston and prospects, Eric Johnson and David Perron, has the future of the Blues looking relatively healthy. While the Blues may not make the playoffs this year, they have made significant strides in the right direction. They still lack depth beyond their top six forwards (if you consider it a legitimate top six), but their blueline is (or will be) amongst the top in the league with the likes of Barret Jackman, Eric Brewer, Erik Johnson, Jay McKee, and Christian Backman.
Analysis: If the Blues can string some wins together, they may be able to grab the last playoff spot at the end of the season. However, more than likely, the Blues will finish the season 9th or lower.

9. Colorado Avalanche
The Colorado Avalanche, for many years, have been a playoff team, but heavy losses of the likes of Forsberg, Foote, Deadmarsh, Tanguay, Drury over the past five years or so have significantly impacted their lineup. While players like Milan Hejduk, Marek Svatos, and Paul Stastny have somewhat filled the void, Stastny is currently on the IR, Hejduk is inconsistent at the best of times, and Svatos has yet to prove that is 05/06 season wasn't a fluke (and yes, I realize he's on pace for 30 goals, but he's also on pace for 7 assists. Yes, that's not a typo. He's on pace for 34 goals and 7 assists). The Avs have also been feeling the injury bug with Sakic on the IR until mid-March, and Smyth out until late February.
Analysis: The Avs may have enough young talent to partially temper the losses of great players over the year, and the acquisition of Ryan Smyth will help the team greatly in the playoff hunt and beyond. However, with injuries to key players (namely Smyth and Sakic), their hopes are quickly diminishing. They may squeak into the playoffs this year, but it is unlikely that they will finish any higher than 7th position in the West.

10. Columbus Blue Jackets
While the Jackets seem to have a decent roster on paper, they have a history of lackluster, uninspired play. Prospects like Nash, Zherdev, Brule, Brassard, Fritsche, and Leclaire were supposed secure the future of the club, while acquired veterans like Foote, Peca, and Fedorov were supposed to balance the team and provide much needed leadership. For whatever reason, despite his immense talent, Nash has yet to break out, and Zherdev is only recently coming into his own. It will be a couple of years yet until the likes of Brule and Brassard become a factor, and it seems like age has caught up with Fedorov and Peca (who is only 33 years old) as they appear as mere shadows of their former selves.
Analysis: The Jackets have a good team on paper, and they have many prospects, either in the system, or on the ice. While there are still positions that should probably be addressed (centre and defense), this is a team with reasonable potential for the future. While I don't think they will be successful until they address their needs, they may possibly make a run for the last playoff position. However, if the last few years have been any indication, there is usually significant disparity between 8th and 9th position in the West. I just don't feel the Jackets will ever be a serious contender, either for a playoff position or for a Cup, until they find depth up the middle. A bubble team this year, and for the years to come until they address the holes in their lineup. But then again, that's the way I felt about the Calgary Flames...

11. Phoenix Coyotes
The dogs have had a surprising season this year with the likes of Hanzal, Mueller, and Vrbata having strong starts to the season, and the waiver acquisition of goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov. With 26 wins and 54 points, they currently sit 2 points out of a playoff spot, and have a firm hold on 11th spot in the West, 3 points over 12th seeded St. Louis; a significant improvement over past seasons.
Analysis: Even with young prospects like Hanzal and Mueller (and possibly Vrbata), I don't believe the Coyotes have the firepower to become a significant playoff threat. While the acquisition of Ilya Bryzgalov has addressed a desperate void in net, Bryzgalov is not Martin Brodeur or Roberto Luongo. What they have on paper is simply not enough. They may have enough to make a push towards the bubble, but more than likely, come playoff time, they will be on the outside looking in.

12. Nashville Predators
While it looked like Nashville was finally past the "expansion hump" into being a real playoff contender, the firesale that took place at the trade deadline last year has effectively taken them out of the running. The departure of Tomas Vokoun to Florida, Paul Kariya to St. Louis, and captain Kimmo Timonen to Philadelphia have left the Preds with some gaping holes in their lineup.
Analysis: Prospects Shea Weber and Ryan Suter seem to be developing nicely, but the rest of the team is still struggling to catch up. J.P. Dumont, Jason Arnott, and Martin Erat are good top six players, but none are bonafide top line players. Although the Preds are only 1 point out of a playoff spot, their lineup on paper just doesn't match up well with the rest of the Western conference. With Vancouver, Colorado, Calgary, and Columbus the most likely teams they will have to battle just for bubble position, Nashville will more than likely be duking it out for 9th to 12th in the West.

13. Edmonton
For the past 10 seasons or more, there is one thing that Edmonton Oilers could never be accused of, and that is lack of effort. The loss of numerous high-profile players to free agency, such as Doug Weight, Bill Guerin, and the infamous Ryan Smyth or Chris Pronger debacle have cut the Oil off at the knees. Still, every year they continue to give 110% in their search for a playoff berth. While most seasons they've managed to grasp the last playoff spot on the merit of pure will and effort, this year, it may not be enough. The Oil are going through a rebuilding process (sans Ryan Smyth and Jason Smith), and while they have burgeoning young talent like Gagne, Penner, Hemsky, Horcoff, Pitkanen, and Nilsson, the loss of the leadership and guiding presences from players like Smyth and Smith is great. However, Ethan Moreau may just be capable of filling the gap on his own until Horcoff and Souray (if he sticks around) pick up the slack.
Analysis: While there is an outside chance that the Oil will make the playoffs (and I'm a big Edmonton fan, so I'd like it to happen), it is unlikely at best. The line of Horcoff, Hemsky, and Penner is playing well, but it's not enough to give any significant worry to bubble teams like Vancouver, Colorado, Calgary, and Columbus, who will be their most likely targets come the end of the regular season. Edmonton will probably finish somewhere below 10th in the West.

14. Chicago Blackhawks
The Hawks are another team experiencing something of a resurgence, with rookies Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews leading the rookie scoring race. A developing blueline, including Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Cam Barker, Brent Sopel, and the surprising performance of Dustin Byfuglien (pronounced BUFF-lin, if you're curious) is also showing signs of consistency. Round out that cast with Havlat, Lang, Sharp, Ruutu (who incidentally is still struggling to play up to his prospect status), and goaltender Khabibulin, and you've got an effective roster.
Analysis: While the Hawks are an interesting dark horse with plenty of depth, both up front and on the blueline, their biggest strength (youth) may also be their biggest area of need, as aside from Robert Lang, they really don't have a player on that team who can grab the reigns and steer them in the right direction; incidentally, Robert Lang, while providing much needed leadership, has not been known to do that. No one can argue that the Hawks are talented, but whether or not they will make the playoffs is another story. 14th place in the West with 23 regulation wins and 50 points; it's still better than the Leafs, but it's a long way to climb to battle teams like the Jackets, Blues, 'nucks, Avs, and Preds for the final playoff spot. Expect Chicago to finish below 11th in the West.

15. Los Angeles Kings
If one were to have seen the season opener between the Kings and the Ducks, one might think that they would have had a decent shot at making a playoff run. 51 games into the season, the Kings have a measly 20 regulation wins (tied with the Leafs for dead last in the NHL), a whopping 29 losses (most in the NHL), 42 points, and last place. Who knew? Jonathan Bernier is still a year or two (or three) away from being a #1 goalie, and #1 defenseman Rob Blake is a few years from retirement, but the Kings also have prospects Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Patrick O'Sullivan, Alex Frolov, and Jack Johnson. The rest of the cast are inconsequential roster players (and yes, I'm including Lubomir Visnovsky in that group for those of you who think offensive powerplay specialists are impact players).
Analysis: The Kings are a year or two yet away from developing a good core group of players. And while Jack Johnson will provide a good anchor on the blueline, the Kings may need more than one to succeed. Even with their young talent in the years to come, being a consistent playoff team may be a struggle as they have far too many floaters out there who don't provide enough support for the core. Thinking about making the playoffs while being dead last in the NHL after 51 games, and 14 points out of the last playoff spot? Let's just settle on stringing a few wins together first.