Saturday, January 12, 2008

Mid-season predictions (Part 2 - The West)

1. Detroit Red Wings
I feel like I owe an apology to the Wings and their fans, because for the past five years or so, I've been quick to condemn them to the junk heap for various reasons. Dominik Hasek and Chris Chelios are too old, they'll never make it. Nope. Steve Yzerman is retiring, they won't be a strong contender without him. Nope. Past Datsyuk and Zetterberg, the Wings won't have any depth. Nope. Every year, I come up with another reason why the Red Wings won't succeed, and every year, they throw my words back in my face. And really, I suppose I couldn't be happier. As one of the original six teams, not only is the Wings organization a class act in every way, but their talent is home grown, and flies in the face of the philosophy of teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Rangers. There are only two possible explanations for this. 1. The Detroit Red Wings have a signed contract with the devil. Or 2. The Wings organization is spending all their money in the right places. I prefer the latter to the former, but to each his own.
Analysis: Even if you're not a fan of the Detroit Red Wings, it's almost impossible to not give the proper respect to what they've done over the past 10 or 20 years of hockey (not to mention since their conception). Three Cups in the last 10 years, including back to back years in 96/97 and 97/98, five President's trophies for most points in the NHL, four cup final appearances, and never finishing below 3rd in the East for the last ~15 years. 'Nuff said. Will the Wings make the playoffs? The question is not whether the Wings will make the playoffs or not, but rather how deep will they go?

2. San Jose Sharks
The Sharks have played like studs in the regular season, but have somewhat fizzled in the playoffs. They currently stand 2nd in the West, first in their division, and 2nd in the NHL with 57 points. And their top scorers (besides Big Joe) are currently "slumping".
Analysis: Will they make the playoffs? Will they lead their division all the way to the end? Will they succeed in the playoffs? Many of these questions depend on the health and play of Evgeni Nabokov, who has played in all but 1 game for the Sharks. Whether or not he's started all 43 games is really inconsequential at this point for a goalie that's on pace to play 80 games. Ouch. Will Nabokov have anything left in the tank for the post-season? Even Martin Brodeur only plays 70+ games, and has only played over 75 games twice in his career. Will the Sharks make the playoffs? They should almost surely finish within the top 5 in the West, if not the NHL, but whether or not they will be successful with a dog-tired goalie is another story.

3. Minnesota Wild
The Minnesota Wild seem to have finally come to terms with the quirky little team that is the Minnesota Wild. Any team playing a defensive system with the likes of Marian Gaborik, Pavol Demitra, and Brian Rolston is a team with an identity crisis. Fortunately, over the past couple years, Gaborik has been playing more games, and has been starting to change the team identity. Goals are up, defense is still strong, netminding is always a plus, even with the loss of Manny Fernandez.
Analysis: While the Northwest division is fairly competitive, the Wild make a strong argument for first place. If the Wild don't finish in the top three in the East, there's no reason to think that they should finish below top five in the West.

4. Dallas Stars
While the Stars are another perennial candidate to make the playoffs, their roster just dosn't seem strong enough on paper to be a good playoff candidate. Modano is starting to show signs of age, and behind Mike Ribeiro, they really don't have much depth down the middle. Depth on the wing is also a concern as they really don't have a legitimate top six. Besides Brenden Morrow (who's not a natural goal scorer by any stretch of the imagination), the Stars having anyone in top 20 in league scoring will be a surprise.
Analysis: The Stars, on paper at least, seem to be overachieving, mainly on the shoulders of Mike Ribeiro and Brendan Morrow. Will they keep it up until the end of the season? Possibly. However, if their roster is any indication, they may not finish in the top five, but should make the playoffs.

5. Vancouver Canucks
Roberto Luongo.

6. Calgary Flames
The Calgary Flames, who have in years past been offensively challenged, have recently become a scoring threat. Captain, Jarome Iginla, is amongst top five in NHL scoring with 62 points in 48 games, and his supporting cast of Kristian Huselius, Daymond Langkow, and Alex Tanguay are all on pace for 20 goals or more. However, in their quest for more offense, they seem to have lost their identity as a hard working, grinding, defensively minded team. They have also done nothing to address their gaping hole up the middle. While Craig Conroy and Daymond Langkow are both good centres, neither one is truly a No. 1 centre, and neither one can truly support Jarome Iginla to the level he needs to maximize his scoring potential.
Analysis: Despite their early season struggles, the Calgary Flames will undoubtedly make the playoffs. However, playing in a division as competitive as the Northwest with teams like Minnesota, Colorado, and Vancouver, who are all separated by no more than two points, taking the division title will be a challenge. Regardless of how they fare in their division, the Flames should finish no lower than 5th in the West. However, as competitive as the top eight teams are in the West, you never really know.

7. Anaheim Ducks
As you can see, standings can drastically change within the span of just a few games. When I started this analysis, the Ducks were in 7th, and now they are currently second in the West with 58 points. While the Ducks had a bit of a rocky start, they seem to have found their stride, and with the return of Scott Niedermayer (and possibly Teemu Selanne), they have once again become a Cup contender. While the loss of Andy McDonald and Dustin Penner might hurt in the short run, the emergence of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry as premier, top-line scorers is quickly healing the wound. Coupled with depth on the blueline, including all-star defencemen Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, and the goaltending of Jean-Sebastien Giguere, the Ducks, at least on paper, are amongst the top teams in the West.
Analysis: The Ducks have recently moved into second in the West, and have passed San Jose for first in the Pacific division. Don't be surprised if they stay amongst the top 3 or 4 in the West for the remainder of the season.

8. St. Louis Blues
The Blues have experienced a rebirth since the colossal disaster that was the last two seasons. They've gone from dead last in the NHL with a total of 57 points for the entire 05/06 season, to 9th place in the West with 50 points and 22 wins already, which is a significant improvement. The acquisition of Paul Kariya and Andy McDonald, along with the emergence of Brad Boyes from Boston and prospects, Eric Johnson and David Perron, has the future of the Blues looking relatively healthy. While the Blues may not make the playoffs this year, they have made significant strides in the right direction. They still lack depth beyond their top six forwards (if you consider it a legitimate top six), but their blueline is (or will be) amongst the top in the league with the likes of Barret Jackman, Eric Brewer, Erik Johnson, Jay McKee, and Christian Backman.
Analysis: If the Blues can string some wins together, they may be able to grab the last playoff spot at the end of the season. However, more than likely, the Blues will finish the season 9th or lower.

9. Colorado Avalanche
The Colorado Avalanche, for many years, have been a playoff team, but heavy losses of the likes of Forsberg, Foote, Deadmarsh, Tanguay, Drury over the past five years or so have significantly impacted their lineup. While players like Milan Hejduk, Marek Svatos, and Paul Stastny have somewhat filled the void, Stastny is currently on the IR, Hejduk is inconsistent at the best of times, and Svatos has yet to prove that is 05/06 season wasn't a fluke (and yes, I realize he's on pace for 30 goals, but he's also on pace for 7 assists. Yes, that's not a typo. He's on pace for 34 goals and 7 assists). The Avs have also been feeling the injury bug with Sakic on the IR until mid-March, and Smyth out until late February.
Analysis: The Avs may have enough young talent to partially temper the losses of great players over the year, and the acquisition of Ryan Smyth will help the team greatly in the playoff hunt and beyond. However, with injuries to key players (namely Smyth and Sakic), their hopes are quickly diminishing. They may squeak into the playoffs this year, but it is unlikely that they will finish any higher than 7th position in the West.

10. Columbus Blue Jackets
While the Jackets seem to have a decent roster on paper, they have a history of lackluster, uninspired play. Prospects like Nash, Zherdev, Brule, Brassard, Fritsche, and Leclaire were supposed secure the future of the club, while acquired veterans like Foote, Peca, and Fedorov were supposed to balance the team and provide much needed leadership. For whatever reason, despite his immense talent, Nash has yet to break out, and Zherdev is only recently coming into his own. It will be a couple of years yet until the likes of Brule and Brassard become a factor, and it seems like age has caught up with Fedorov and Peca (who is only 33 years old) as they appear as mere shadows of their former selves.
Analysis: The Jackets have a good team on paper, and they have many prospects, either in the system, or on the ice. While there are still positions that should probably be addressed (centre and defense), this is a team with reasonable potential for the future. While I don't think they will be successful until they address their needs, they may possibly make a run for the last playoff position. However, if the last few years have been any indication, there is usually significant disparity between 8th and 9th position in the West. I just don't feel the Jackets will ever be a serious contender, either for a playoff position or for a Cup, until they find depth up the middle. A bubble team this year, and for the years to come until they address the holes in their lineup. But then again, that's the way I felt about the Calgary Flames...

11. Phoenix Coyotes
The dogs have had a surprising season this year with the likes of Hanzal, Mueller, and Vrbata having strong starts to the season, and the waiver acquisition of goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov. With 26 wins and 54 points, they currently sit 2 points out of a playoff spot, and have a firm hold on 11th spot in the West, 3 points over 12th seeded St. Louis; a significant improvement over past seasons.
Analysis: Even with young prospects like Hanzal and Mueller (and possibly Vrbata), I don't believe the Coyotes have the firepower to become a significant playoff threat. While the acquisition of Ilya Bryzgalov has addressed a desperate void in net, Bryzgalov is not Martin Brodeur or Roberto Luongo. What they have on paper is simply not enough. They may have enough to make a push towards the bubble, but more than likely, come playoff time, they will be on the outside looking in.

12. Nashville Predators
While it looked like Nashville was finally past the "expansion hump" into being a real playoff contender, the firesale that took place at the trade deadline last year has effectively taken them out of the running. The departure of Tomas Vokoun to Florida, Paul Kariya to St. Louis, and captain Kimmo Timonen to Philadelphia have left the Preds with some gaping holes in their lineup.
Analysis: Prospects Shea Weber and Ryan Suter seem to be developing nicely, but the rest of the team is still struggling to catch up. J.P. Dumont, Jason Arnott, and Martin Erat are good top six players, but none are bonafide top line players. Although the Preds are only 1 point out of a playoff spot, their lineup on paper just doesn't match up well with the rest of the Western conference. With Vancouver, Colorado, Calgary, and Columbus the most likely teams they will have to battle just for bubble position, Nashville will more than likely be duking it out for 9th to 12th in the West.

13. Edmonton
For the past 10 seasons or more, there is one thing that Edmonton Oilers could never be accused of, and that is lack of effort. The loss of numerous high-profile players to free agency, such as Doug Weight, Bill Guerin, and the infamous Ryan Smyth or Chris Pronger debacle have cut the Oil off at the knees. Still, every year they continue to give 110% in their search for a playoff berth. While most seasons they've managed to grasp the last playoff spot on the merit of pure will and effort, this year, it may not be enough. The Oil are going through a rebuilding process (sans Ryan Smyth and Jason Smith), and while they have burgeoning young talent like Gagne, Penner, Hemsky, Horcoff, Pitkanen, and Nilsson, the loss of the leadership and guiding presences from players like Smyth and Smith is great. However, Ethan Moreau may just be capable of filling the gap on his own until Horcoff and Souray (if he sticks around) pick up the slack.
Analysis: While there is an outside chance that the Oil will make the playoffs (and I'm a big Edmonton fan, so I'd like it to happen), it is unlikely at best. The line of Horcoff, Hemsky, and Penner is playing well, but it's not enough to give any significant worry to bubble teams like Vancouver, Colorado, Calgary, and Columbus, who will be their most likely targets come the end of the regular season. Edmonton will probably finish somewhere below 10th in the West.

14. Chicago Blackhawks
The Hawks are another team experiencing something of a resurgence, with rookies Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews leading the rookie scoring race. A developing blueline, including Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Cam Barker, Brent Sopel, and the surprising performance of Dustin Byfuglien (pronounced BUFF-lin, if you're curious) is also showing signs of consistency. Round out that cast with Havlat, Lang, Sharp, Ruutu (who incidentally is still struggling to play up to his prospect status), and goaltender Khabibulin, and you've got an effective roster.
Analysis: While the Hawks are an interesting dark horse with plenty of depth, both up front and on the blueline, their biggest strength (youth) may also be their biggest area of need, as aside from Robert Lang, they really don't have a player on that team who can grab the reigns and steer them in the right direction; incidentally, Robert Lang, while providing much needed leadership, has not been known to do that. No one can argue that the Hawks are talented, but whether or not they will make the playoffs is another story. 14th place in the West with 23 regulation wins and 50 points; it's still better than the Leafs, but it's a long way to climb to battle teams like the Jackets, Blues, 'nucks, Avs, and Preds for the final playoff spot. Expect Chicago to finish below 11th in the West.

15. Los Angeles Kings
If one were to have seen the season opener between the Kings and the Ducks, one might think that they would have had a decent shot at making a playoff run. 51 games into the season, the Kings have a measly 20 regulation wins (tied with the Leafs for dead last in the NHL), a whopping 29 losses (most in the NHL), 42 points, and last place. Who knew? Jonathan Bernier is still a year or two (or three) away from being a #1 goalie, and #1 defenseman Rob Blake is a few years from retirement, but the Kings also have prospects Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Patrick O'Sullivan, Alex Frolov, and Jack Johnson. The rest of the cast are inconsequential roster players (and yes, I'm including Lubomir Visnovsky in that group for those of you who think offensive powerplay specialists are impact players).
Analysis: The Kings are a year or two yet away from developing a good core group of players. And while Jack Johnson will provide a good anchor on the blueline, the Kings may need more than one to succeed. Even with their young talent in the years to come, being a consistent playoff team may be a struggle as they have far too many floaters out there who don't provide enough support for the core. Thinking about making the playoffs while being dead last in the NHL after 51 games, and 14 points out of the last playoff spot? Let's just settle on stringing a few wins together first.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

ugoplayer.com/games/puzzlefreak.html

For those of you out there that like puzzle-type games, there's a nice "monopoly-type" IQ puzzle game.

ugoplayer.com/games/puzzlefreak.html


Up to four players, can play against the computer, nice variety of "IQ testing" puzzle games; what more could you ask for? Try it. Now. Do it. Do it.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Mid-season predictions (Part 1 - the East)

So I suppose you're all wondering and saying, "Oh great and wonderful Burnsy, will my team, the blankety blanks, make the playoffs this year?". Well, that's a good question, and it's what I'm here for, so let's get started. We'll start in the Eastern conference, and move into the Western conference.

1. Ottawa Senators
Undoubtedly. Despite their current goaltender controversy, this team has far too much talent to fail to make the playoffs. Jason Spezza is very likely leading the league in points per game, and if he's not, he's pretty darn close. Dany Heatley and Daniel Alfredsson are both in the league's top 10 in scoring, and they have one of the best (if not the best) top four defensemen in the league with Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov, Wade Redden, and Andrej Meszaros. Combine that with their "tandem" of Gerber and Emery who, while they're not playing their best hockey at the moment, are nonetheless both talented goaltenders, and you have one of the top teams in the league. It's no mystery why they're sitting atop the East almost 10 points ahead of their nearest rival.

2. New Jersey Devils
The Devils are a perennial threat, and this year is no different. It doesn't seem to matter who their players are, who their coach is, or what style of play they're taking; they just seem to keep winning. Elias? Non-factor. Gomez and Rafalski? Gone. Brodeur? Played like shit the first 15-20 games of the season. The Devils? First in the Atlantic division, second in the East. How do they do it? There are only 2 explanations. 1. The devil. 2. The mob. Everything else doesn't make sense. Will the Devils make the playoffs? Martin Brodeur. .. Wait a minute, that's not an answer, that's a name. Will the Devils be successful in the playoffs? Martin Brodeur. Will the -- Martin Brodeur. Will-- Martin Brodeur. ... ... MARTIN BRODEUR. Martin Brodeur is not just a name, it's also an answer to any question pertaining to the New Jersey Devils.

3. Carolina Hurricanes
Playing in one of the weakest divisions in the league (along with Atlanta, Florida, Washington, and Tampa Bay), the 'Canes should have no trouble in making the playoffs. Even if they don't finish first in the Southeast division, their forward depth and team defense should be enough to put them within the top 6 teams at the end of the season.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins
This team is good. Very good. Despite underachieving players like Fleury, Recchi (who was recently waived), and Staal, the Pens are still in good shape in the East. It's possible that they won't make the playoffs, but unless things go sour for the Pens, they should finish amongst the top 8 to grab a playoff spot.

5. Montreal Canadiens
The Habs had a wonderful start to the season, but have since lapsed into the perennial mediocrity that has plagued them for years now. Their strong start may be enough to push them into a playoff spot, but with the Canadiens, you never really know. Before the season started, I would have said it could go either way. 40 games in, after a strong start, it could still go either way. Look for the Canadiens to finish 6th-10th at season's end.

6. Boston Bruins
Much like the Montreal Canadiens, Boston is the poster-child for mediocrity. Whether or not they will make the playoffs is anybody's guess. They're currently 2 points up on the NYI, who are in 9th place, and 5 points up on 3 teams with 41 points. Look for Boston to finish anywhere between 7th and 10th in the East.

7. New York Rangers
Our first beloved black hole of hockey. Despite the vast talent the Rangers are able to sign year after year, they just can't seem to do anything with it. Unless the Rangers can string some wins together, it looks like they may be firing blanks again this year. With 45 points, the Rangers are currently 7th in the East and 1 point out of bubble position. However, with as much talent as the Rangers have, it should not be unrealistic to see them finish in the top 5 in the East; however, top 8 is probably more realistic.

8. Philadelphia Flyers
Considering the season the Flyers had last year, taking the 8th and final playoff spot could be considered a blessing. With Gagne returning to the lineup, and the burgeoning talent of Mike Richards, the the Flyers need only rid themselves of the traveling freakshow that is Steve Downie and get themselves some goaltending, and they should have a successful playoff team on their hands. Look for the Flyers to finish the season somewhere between 5th and 8th in the East.

9. New York Islanders
If anyone can give me a good reason why the Islanders should be in the playoffs, please advise me of your current position so I can find you and slap you in the face. And don't say "Rick DiPietro". After being single-handedly demolished by GM Mike Milbury, this team is about as low as it can possibly get. Were it not for Rick DiPietro, they would surely be in the Eastern Conference basement. Just what has Mike Milbury done, you ask? I'm just going to throw out some of the talent that Mike Milbury had (either drafted, or had the draft pick that would have resulted in), and then I'll throw out some of the names that he got back. Had: Roberto Luongo ('Nuff said). Eric Brewer, Tim Connolly, Zdeno Chara, Wade Redden, Jason Spezza, Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan McCabe, Olli Jokinen, J.P. Dumont.

(In case you're not familiar with these names, here's a brief breakdown)
Luongo: Perennial Vezina candidate.
Connolly: Point/game player.
Brewer: Gold medal winning defenseman for Team Canada.
Chara: Wrecking ball captain of the Boston Bruins and possible Norris candidate.
Redden: Another possible Norris candidate (when playing his best).
Spezza: Possible Art Ross candidate and current NHL points/game leader
Bertuzzi: While his best days are behind him (post Steve Moore), he was, for a significant length of time, considered one of the (if not the) best powerforward in the game, and rightly so.
McCabe: He gets a lot of points... I guess Bryan McCabe wasn't one of the best examples I could have used.... He's getting paid a lot of money... Does that make him good?
Olli Jokinen: Captain and leading scorer of the Florida Panthers. Point/game scorer, aggressive, good size down the middle. What more could you ask for?

Now let's see what he got back:
Zdeno Chara, Bill Muckalt, and 1st Round selection (Jason Spezza) for: Alexei Yashin. Yes, that's right. Alexei Yashin. Where is he now, you ask? I believe he's playing in Russia...

Eric Brewer, Josh Green and 2nd Round selection (Brad Winchester) for: Roman Hamrlik. One of the least offensive of all of his trades, although I'd still take Brewer any day of the week over Hamrlik.

Tim Connolly and Taylor Pyatt for: Michael Peca. Probably the least offensive trade of them all. Can't really go wrong with Michael Peca.

Rick DiPietro: Drafted in 2000 ahead of Dany Heatley and Marian Gaborik. Yes, that's right. Two franchise players. But it's alright. He signed Rick DiPietro to a 15 year deal worth about $75 million dollars, so he covered his butt there. ... Wait a minute... That doesn't make sense...

Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan McCabe, and a 3rd Round selection (Jarkko Ruutu) for: Trevor Linden. Mind you, this was back in 1998, so Linden still had a few good years left in him, but then again, so did Todd Bertuzzi...

Luongo and Jokinen traded for: Mark Parrish and Oleg Kvasha. Mark who and who?? Exactly. This trade really sums up his career in a nutshell. Arguably the best goaltender in the league along with a superstar forward for two roster players, one who's shown sparks of mediocrity at the peak of his career, and the other who splits his time between playing in Russia and playing in North America. Wow.

J.P. Dumont and 5th round selection (Francis Belanger) for: Dmitri Nabokov. That's Dmitri Nabokov, not Evgeni Nabokov. Don't go thinking that 'ol Mike might have actually made a decent move. Yes, Mike Milbury thinks the game as well as he played it. Craptastically.

By the way, as a quick aside, Canadians and fans of TSN are now forced to watch this bonehead on NHL on TSN, where hockey pundits like Bob McKenzie, Pierre McGuire, and Darren Dreger actually have to listen to what this guy thinks about the game. If there's anyone from TSN reading this post, for the love of GOD, please don't subject us to anymore of this. The panel becomes a farce everytime this philistine opens his mouth. This guy is about as popular as Tie Domi outside of Toronto.

Oh yeah... The New York Islanders... Uh... Who cares. Every time I think of the New York Islanders, I think of Mike Milbury, and every time I think of that meathead opening his mouth, and get angrier and dumber.

10. Atlanta Thrashers
The Thrashers have never been a very successful team, and it would seem that they are doomed to be perpetual disappointment year after year. The Thrashers are either unable or unwilling to address their areas of need (ie: centre, defence), and will probably never be a viable threat until they do so. While it's possible (but unlikely) that the Thrashers will make the playoffs, making a successful run is a virtual impossibility. Atlanta will probably finish in 9th or 10th spot.

11. Buffalo Sabres
Tim Connolly, Thomas Vanek, Maxim Afinogenov, Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Brian Campbell, Jaroslav Spacek, Tony Lydman, Dmitri Kalinen, Henrik Tallinder, Teppo Numinen, Ryan Miller. Even with the loss of Briere and Drury, the Sabres should have enough talent to compete. Then again, Lindy Ruff is the coach. The Sabres will probably finish between 4th and 7th in the East, but more than likely won't have a very successful playoff run.

12. Florida Panthers
Florida is another team with is loaded with talent, but are not achieving their potential. With players like Jokinen, Horton, Weiss, Olesz, Bouwmeester, Mezei, Van Ryn, and Vokoun, along with a solid cast of developing players, the Panthers should be doing better than their 12th place in the East position would suggest. As much as I would like to say the Panthers will make the playoffs, their history would suggest otherwise, as they have not made the playoffs in the last 6 seasons (not counting the lockout season). The Panthers will probably finish 9th to 11th in the East.

13. Washington Capitals
After just recently signing Alexander Ovechkin to one of the biggest contracts in NHL history (including the infamous Rick DiPietro 15 year contract), you might think that the future of the Capitals has been successfully assured. Hm... While the Caps have some interesting prospects including the likes of Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, Steve Eminger, Eric Fehr, and Karl Alzner, it's going to be a few years before we see them all in action at the same time. While their near future looks promising, their immediate future is questionable. By that time, they may need to address their goaltending position as well. If you're hoping for the Caps to make a playoff run, don't hold your breath. You might pass out.

14. Toronto Maple Leafs
What do you say about the Leafs that hasn't already been said a thousand times before? #1 The suits need to stop buying all the tickets and let the real fans into the stadium. #2 MLSE needs to sell the franchise because they've become a complete joke, and they just don't care anymore. #3 Richard Peddie, the current president of MLSE, needs to stop being such a dick, as ironic as that sounds. #4 If MLSE doesn't sell, they need to start caring about the product they are putting on the ice. Even hardcore Leaf fans have started to admit to themselves that their team is a joke, and that's like getting OJ to admit that he killed his wife. #5 EVERYONE on the Leaf roster must go. Yes. Everyone. Name one player that you would keep. Go ahead. I DARE you. You can't do it, can you? Even die-hard Leafers have to admit that nobody on that team tries anymore except for Sundin. This isn't the team that mommy and daddy loved. This is the new breed of Leaf. He's greedy, selfish, and spoiled. He cares nothing for the fans, for the tradition, or for the game. If Leaf fans want to effect change, then stop buying what MLSE is selling, because you're getting fleeced. The Leafs make the playoffs? Sadly they might. The Leafs having a successful playoff run? With 16 wins after 44 games? It's about as likely as the Republicans espousing gay marriage.

15. Tampa Bay Lightning
The question that keeps popping up ever since their Cup win in 03/04 is, "Can Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Brad Richards be bigger than the rest of the NHL?" As long as the big three from Tampa Bay can play bigger than the team they are playing against, then Tampa Bay will win. And as good as the big 3 are, Tampa Bay's 16 regular season wins tell the story. If your goal is to run your star centre into the ground by playing him 25+ minutes per game, then mission accomplished. Will the big 3 have anything left in the tank come playoff time (or even a last push towards the playoffs)? Likely not. Tampa will likely finish below 12th in the East.

... Tune in next time for a Western Conference analysis. Same Bat time! Same Bat channel!

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Mid-season analysis

Now that we've started the new year, we've just about hit the midpoint of the hockey season, and what's the verdict? Like many other seasons, there have been pleasant surprises, and many teeth-grinding disappointments. Yes, it's time for the mid-season analysis. Teams that have moved above and beyond all expectations, and others that have tanked straight out of the gate. Some of those struggling teams have made a recovery, and others have not. So the question you're all asking is, "Oh Swami, great predictor of predictors, and knower of a lot of great knowledge, what do you foresee for the Blankety Blanks?" Well, I'm glad you asked, because here it comes.

The Montreal Canadiens
After the first 20 games of the season, even the great cmburns thought he might have to apologize to Habs fans around the world for not believing. Their deadly powerplay, and second-line scoring, along with great performances from Andrei Markov and Mark Streit to fill the shoes of the departed Sheldon Souray were almost enough to propel them to tops in the league. Unfortunately, the perennial mediocrity that has plagued the Habs for the past 10 years has once again reared it's ugly head. The powerplay has lost it's effectiveness, and have dropped from being within 4 points of first in the East, to 9 points back.
Analysis: Regardless of the play of Kovalev, Huet, or Markov, the Canadiens will challenge for the 7th or 8th playoff spot, as long as Saku Koivu remains with the team, and remains healthy.

The Toronto Maple Leafs
This team's performance isn't really a surprise, I just thought I would comment on them because of all the controversy surrounding MLSE, and the fact that Leaf fans are still brainwashed enough to think that the Leafs have a chance of making a cup run. The truth of the matter is, despite their horrendously inconsistent play, the Leafs actually do have a chance of making the playoffs. Of course, making the playoffs, making a successful run (ie: Conference finals or Cup finals), and winning a Cup are all significantly different achievements. While the Leafs may have an outside chance of making the playoffs, the Leafs winning the cup is about as likely as Al Gore getting buck wild on Spring Break in Cancun. It's just not going to happen. After 40 games, the Leafs have 16 wins, which ties them for 3rd in the league for the fewest wins. The only teams with fewer wins are the Los Angeles Kings, and the Tampa Bay Lightning, both of whom are currently sitting in the basements of their respective leagues. Yes, the Toronto Maple Leafs are still losing games, they're just not doing it in regulation. If Leaf Nation thinks they're going to get past the first round of the playoffs with 30 regular season wins, then, well... I guess it'll be just like every other year in Leaf Nation. Go Leafs Go!
Analysis: This team is about as good as everyone (except Maurice) predicted. My analysis of this team is the same as it's been for the past 7 or 8 years. This team needs to be demolished, and it needs to be done soon. Fan support for MLSE is at an all time low, but you would never know it from the number of suits that still fill the seats at the Air Canada Centre. There's not a single player on this team (save Sundin) that contribute on a consistent basis, and there's not a single player on this team (including Sundin) that comes to the rink and leaves the rink with a winning attitude. The bottom line is that the Maple Leafs have filled their roster with a group of players that just don't care about hockey, and just don't care about winning. Firesale. Now. EVERYONE must go. That means the ENTIRE roster. Change the roster. Change the coach. Sell the team, or at least find someone who possesses a modicum of knowledge about hockey. Start from scratch. 'Nuff said.

The Pittsburgh Penguins
While the Pens haven't been the year's biggest disappointment, they haven't entirely lived up to expectations either. For a team with as many offensive weapons as they showed last year, they've been surprisingly quiet. Crosby, to some extent, has been outplayed by (amongst others) Lecavalier, Kovalchuk, Spezza, Zetterberg... Fleury has been inconsistent, and the trade rumours have been surfacing. Recchi was waived, and Jordan Staal, to date, has 3 goals and 10 points in 40 games played.
Analysis: While Pittsburgh hasn't been ripping it up, they're still second in the Atlantic division, and fourth in the east. With a team goal differential of +6, if this is the worst they're going to play, things are still looking up for the Penguins.

The New York Rangers
Like the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Rangers were supposed to be a juggernaut this season, but have failed to achieve the lofty goals they have set out for themselves. However, is this really a surprise? Despite the new cap system, the New York Rangers have fallen back on old habits in trying to buy talent, and if that was their goal, then their mission has been accomplished. With Jaromir Jagr, Chris Drury, Scott Gomez, Martin Straka, Brendan Shanahan, and Henrik Lundqvist (who was actually drafted and developed by the Rangers, but they're paying him 4.25 mil/year, so I'm putting him in the same category), the New York Rangers have one of the strongest forward lineups on paper. Despite all this immense talent, the Rangers are currently last in the Atlantic division, and 9th in the East.
Analaysis: At the end of the day, the New York Rangers will be as the New York Rangers have been for the past 10 or 20 years; a black hole of hockey. Broadway is where hockey talent comes to die, and apparently, nothing has changed. Despite a brief resurgence in Jaromir Jagr a year ago, he has receeded back into his shell, and along with him, the Rangers' playoff and Cup hopes. C'est la vie.

Individual performances:

Thomas Vanek: Upon the departure of Chris Drury and Daniel Briere, Thomas Vanek was supposed to shoulder the offensive load for the Buffalo Sabres. Has anyone seen this guy play. He's good. Very, very good. However, despite his oozing talent, he is logging 16 min. per game, and has 11 goals and 24 points in 39 games played. Now, understandably he's being checked more closely this year, but anyone who's seen Vanek play knows that he's more than slick enough to slip past the tight checking. So what's causing his dreadful "sophomore slump"? God only knows. Maybe he'll pull out of it this year, and maybe he won't. There's only one thing for certain; for a guy with this much skill, it's only a matter of time. In the meantime, if there's anybody who's looking for advice on how to make him better, and how to make your team better (ie: if Lindy Ruff is reading this page), I'm going to give you some advice, free of charge:
1. You don't have the depth at centre to roll four lines like you did last year, so stop trying.
2. You're paying Thomas Vanek 10 million dollars this year. PLAY THE SHIT OUT OF HIM.
3. Get a GODDAMNED CAPTAIN. No more of this rotating captain shit. It's just gay.

Maxim Afinogenov: Here's another Buffalo Sabre who's struggling to hit his stride. 7 goals and 18 points in 38 games is a far cry from the 1.09 points per game player we saw last year. What's ailing Maxim Afinogenov? Only Maxim Afinogenov knows.

Jonathan Cheechoo: Cheechoo followed his 56 goal performance in 05/06 with a 69 point/76 game season last year. This year, Cheechoo has a mere 5 goals and 11 points in 33 games. He's looking more and more like a one-hit wonder. While he showed some great chemistry with Thornton, and a Brett Hull-like ability to find open ice in the slot, his lack of top-end skill (ie: passing, skating, puck-possession) is apparently catching up with him. Only time will tell if he can duplicate his 05/06 Rocket Richard winning performance.

Mike Richards: Between the duo of Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, I would have predicted that Jeff Carter would have been the more offensively gifted of the two. However, it seems that Mike Richards has hit his stride with significantly more "umph" than Jeff Carter. With his first two seasons totaling 66 points, Richards is ready to eclipse that combined number by being on pace for 39 goals and 93 points. It looks like he's being groomed to be the future captain of the Flyers, so his future looks bright. Also, watching him play reminds me of Daniel Alfredsson; his feet never stop moving. In case anyone is wondering, yes, he IS that good, and no, don't look for his production to stop anytime soon.

Mike Green: Mike who? Yeah, that's what everyone else is saying. This first round pick of the Washington Capitals is making a splash with 10 goals on the season, and 10 points in his last 12 games. Hot streak? Maybe, but then again, maybe not. Definetly a player to keep one's eye on in the near future.

Jordan Staal: Staal is another player with way too much talent for the number of points he's producing. I don't get to watch Staal that much, but from the few games I've seen him play, he still looks good. Methinks it's just a matter of time. Whether he breaks out of his slump this year or the next, his future is still looking bright.

Jason Blake: If New York is a black hole of hockey, then Toronto is... well, a black hole as well. It's just a lot bigger. Owen Nolan, Alexander Mogilny, Joe Nieuwendyk, Eric Lindros, and now Jason Blake. Mind you, there have been players that have gone to Toronto and still played well, but we all know they've never played as well on Toronto as they had for their previous clubs. And mind you that Jason Blake was never that good to begin with. A perennial 20 goal scorer, his highest goal total (besides the 06/07 season) was 28 goals. Can we say "abberation"? Why people would expect this guy to score 40+ goals when he's only done it once in his career is beyond me. That being said, he's not really a "true" disappointment as any informed hockey mind would have known he was incapable of the expecations set upon him by MLSE. 'Nuff said.

Paul Ranger: With Dan Boyle out of the lineup all season long, Paul Ranger has done an admirable job sucking up a lot of those minutes. While he's no Dan Boyle (yet), anyone who's seen Ranger in the past will be pleased with the progress he's shown this year. He'll never be a "Chris Pronger" or a "Scott Niedermayer", but then again, no one's expecting him to be. With any luck, when Boyle returns to the lineup, Ranger will continue to log 25+ minutes, which may even develop him into top-pair talent.

Brent Burns: A surprise for some, not so much so for others. Either way, it has been fun watching this one-time-forward blossom into a #1 defenseman. In a couple years, this guy could be logging 28+ minutes. Big body presence, power play quarterback, defensively reliable, capable of logging big-time minutes. What more could one ask for?

Corey Perry: Another "half-surprise" for anyone who's seen him play before. While his on-ice antics can sometimes put his team behind the proverbial "eight-ball", his slick hands, and potential to put up big numbers is beginning to show through. His 21 goals, 33 points, and 73 pims in 43 games is a significant leap from his last year's totals of 17 goals, 44 points, 55 pims in 82 games. This guy is only going to get better.